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The far-right tide across Europe is not simply a passing phase; analysts are suggesting it could shape the continent for years to come, potentially marking a centennial event in political history.
“There is an undeniable political shift underway in Europe that could significantly reshape the alignment of both the EU and the broader continent,” asserts Tarjei Skirbekk, a noted historian and expert on European affairs, speaking with NTB.
In Brussels, Janis Emmanouilidis, head of the European Policy Center (EPC), nods in agreement, acknowledging the palpable impact this shift is already having on the EU.
A Surge in Support
Support for the new wave of right-wing populist and nationalist parties is at an unprecedented high. Currently, these parties hold power in seven out of the EU’s 27 member states: Italy, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Belgium, Finland, Slovakia, and Croatia.
A striking commonality among these parties is their deep-rooted skepticism towards the EU, coupled with a hardened stance on immigration and crime, and a rejection of climate initiatives.
In France and Germany, the far-right parties National Rally (RN) and Alternative for Germany (AfD) are surging ahead in the polls.
An election poster for the German far-right AfD, now the largest party in Germany according to opinion polls. Authorities have labeled parts of the party as “extreme right.” Photo: Michael Sohn (AP/NTB)
The Netherlands is preparing for elections at the end of October, where Geert Wilders’ far-right Freedom Party (VVD) currently leads in the polls. Meanwhile, in Denmark, the Danish People’s Party is making headlines, a topic that Politiken has explored in-depth as it examines this resurgent right-wing wave. In Sweden, Portugal, Poland, and even Norway, right-wing parties are emerging as formidable forces, often ranking second in voters’ preferences.
A Snowball Effect
Emmanouilidis likens this development to a snowball rolling down a steep hill, gaining momentum that will be challenging to halt.
“I fear there’s a substantial risk that the far right could seize power in several key EU nations,” he warns, highlighting Germany, France, and Poland as particularly vulnerable.
This shift poses a significant challenge for the EU. The common thread among these parties is a desire to weaken the EU’s influence and return power to individual nation states.
Skirbekk echoes these concerns, suggesting that the EU’s institutional integrity may be jeopardized, leaving its member countries—small players on a global stage—more vulnerable to the pressures of larger nations, capital, and technology companies.
A Vicious Cycle
The EU was founded on liberal ideals such as human rights and freedom of expression, advocating for collective action to tackle issues like climate change. However, a dilution of the union could empower authoritarian forces, according to Emmanouilidis.
“I am increasingly worried that the EU is failing to meet the critical challenges it faces,” he observes. This failure feeds perceptions that “the EU does nothing,” which in turn strengthens the far right and diminishes political capital in the EU, creating a troubling vicious cycle.
A Centenary Event
Laurenz Guenther, a French populism researcher at the Toulouse School of Economics, believes the shifts now unfolding in Europe represent a rare centennial event. “The dramatic escalation of right-wing populism is an uncommon phenomenon in the political landscape. We’re witnessing a transformative moment,” he tells Politiken.
NUPI researcher Øyvind Svendsen concurs, noting that the EU is now under threat from within. In his newly released book, Community in Danger, he describes how the rightward shift both within member states and specifically in the EU Parliament poses serious challenges to the EU’s decision-making ability, leading to increasingly polarized stances.
Bankrupting the Moderate Center
Last year, Skirbekk published Political Upheaval?, dissecting the decline of moderate political parties across Europe. He argues that these once-dominant parties have essentially declared themselves bankrupt.
“At the core of people’s desires is a longing for security, a need these parties have yet to fulfill,” he states.
Two primary factors propel citizens towards far-right parties, according to Skirbekk: high immigration rates and economic struggles. Many working-class individuals find themselves displaced, slipping into uncertainty, while the middle class continues to shrink amidst declining economic conditions.
High inflation, soaring energy prices, and stagnating growth exacerbate these challenges. “It appears that the mainstream parties have failed to grasp the gravity of the issues many are grappling with,” Skirbekk concludes.