The Technical Calculation Committee has unveiled its latest forecast, revealing an anticipated price increase of three percent in 2026. This projection comes on the heels of last year’s rise of 3.1 percent, which contributed to a substantial salary settlement of 4.8 percent for workers.
If wage growth mirrors last year’s trends, we can expect an average annual salary increase of approximately NOK 35,000.
The urgency of the situation escalated earlier this week when new data showed that inflation in January hit 3.6 percent, significantly surpassing Norges Bank’s earlier estimations. For more insight, read here: Bang for Norges Bank: Prices are rising much faster.
Calls for Substantial Wage Increases
In response to these figures, trade unions have stepped forward, advocating for a notable wage increase. Unio, one of the prominent unions, highlighted that, according to the TBU report, competitive industries are faring well. However, the share of value created that workers retain is considerably lower than historical averages seen over the past two decades.
“This underscores the necessity for a robust wage settlement in frontline professions, even as we look ahead to 2026,” asserted Unio leader Steffen Handal in a statement to Nettavisen.
Handal’s sentiment is echoed by Unn Kristin Olsen, leader of the Parat union. She argues, “There is clearly potential for a salary increase this year. We are witnessing significant wage growth in some sectors primarily benefiting the top tier, which exacerbates income disparities.”
Likewise, Akademikerne, representing academics, has voiced their stance for a generous salary settlement following the inflation revelations. They contend that public sector salaries are inadequate.
“Both state entities and local municipalities, as well as hospitals, face increasing difficulties in retaining highly educated personnel over time. To compete for talent such as technologists, lawyers, and doctors, salary levels must rise. This is crucial for ensuring quality welfare services and maintaining our preparedness,” emphasized Lise Lyngsnes Randaberg, leader of Akademikerne.
The Salary Settlement Dilemma
These figures set the stage for this year’s salary negotiations, presenting a challenging dilemma for all parties involved in the labor market. Currently, Norway is grappling with soaring prices alongside stable low unemployment and robust industrial profits.
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While increased wages could further fuel price hikes, employees are likely to anticipate generous wage adjustments in response to the industry’s strong profitability.
In 2025, annual wage growth across the major negotiation sectors was recorded at 4.8 percent, with the overall industry seeing an average settlement of 5.1 percent.
“It does little good to offer substantial salary increases if the rising costs of living and interest rates continue to drain people’s bank accounts,” remarked Anne-Kari Bratten, head of the employers’ organization Spekter.
Last year, workers’ share of value creation hit a historic low, according to data from national accounts.
“With inflation beginning at such elevated levels, and given that front-line employers are enjoying unprecedented profitability, one must ask: what exactly are they seeking? And what responses can employers offer?” posed Harald Magnus Andreassen, Chief Economist at SB1 Markets, during an interview with Nettavisen this week.
Read also: Heading towards payday