Economy and Business: Insights from DNB’s Chief Economist
Chief economist Kjersti Haugland of DNB Carnegie recently shared her insights on Norway’s economic outlook in a discussion with NTB. Reflecting on the latest inflation data, she noted, “Like Norges Bank, we anticipated that underlying price growth, which excludes energy prices, would hold steady at 3 percent. However, it has unexpectedly risen to 3.1 percent.”
To clarify, the so-called underlying price growth (CPI-JAE) strips out volatile components, particularly energy prices. In December, while the overall inflation rate (CPI) ticked up to 3.2 percent, the underlying measure concluded the month at 3.1 percent—up from 3 percent in November.
Haugland further remarked that food prices experienced a smaller decline than anticipated last month. “Price growth has surpassed our expectations, yet there is still some flexibility in these forecasts,” she explained.
As for interest rates, she mentioned that Norges Bank is considering one to two cuts in 2026, likely one in the summer and another during the holiday season. However, DNB’s projection suggests there may only be a single rate cut in June.
“Inflation in Norway remains persistent, a point highlighted by Norges Bank,” Haugland emphasized. “This is why we at DNB are cautious about implementing rate cuts.”
Other financial institutions share this sentiment regarding enduring price pressures. Kyrre Knudsen, chief economist at Sparebank 1 Sør-Norge, commented, “Since autumn 2024, inflation has consistently hovered around 3 percent. Food and beverage prices continue to be significant drivers of inflation, which undoubtedly adds to the challenges faced by Norges Bank and consumers alike.”
As the economic landscape evolves, these insights underscore the complexities and uncertainties surrounding Norway’s inflationary trends.